Business1

The U.S. economy took a hit in 2001. Both the NYSE and NASDAQ fall drastically after the September 11th terrorist attacks, and the months prior were also grim for the markets. After most investors suffered huge losses in 2001, Wall Street is hoping for a steady year in 2002. Leading investment executives, however, are not sure what to expect. The Blue Brick rounded up three leading economists for a roundtable discussion on the year ahead.
Chris Atkinson is a strategist for CityBank Investments. He holds a MBA from Harvard and is a 3-handicap golfer. He lives in Bethesda, MD with his wife and two sons.
Lisa Willis is the head of NationalBank Investments. She holds an MBA in finance from Yale. She lives with her four cats in Boston, MA.
Alvin Trickle is the owner of Trickles Cash Advance and Pawn in Detroit, MI. He lives with his girlfriend in an apartment in downtown Detroit.

The Blue Brick: I’d like to thank all of you for being here today and participating in this forum for our readers. Let’s get right to it. What is your long-term forecast for the economy in 2003?
Lisa Willis: I think that we will see growth in the long-term sectors such as retail and consumer goods. Investors are looking for stability this year, and those areas have a good track record for the long-term investor.
Chris Atkinson: I think that bargain-hunters will do very well this year. The tech stocks that took a beating in the second half of 2001 will make a strong comeback this year, and now is the time to buy, with these stocks at near-record lows.
Alvin Trickle: Look, man. The only cash most folks know about is the kind they can hold in their hand. That’s why Trickle’s Cash Advance and Pawn will cash your personal check, and not deposit it for two whole weeks. I think 2002 is the year for cashing your personal checks and buying stuff.
C.A.: I couldn’t disagree more, Alvin. Borrowing against your own personal cash reserve is a horrible strategy.
A.T.: Maybe, Chris. But, unless normal people like me are out there buying stuff, the economy is sunk, right?
C.A.: Well…
A.T.: Well nothing. People got to buy things, Chris, they got to go to Aldi and Wal-Mart and buy stuff, or else all them stocks you talking about don’t mean jack. And they can’t buy no clothes and powdered milk with a tech stock certificate. They need cash, baby.

L.W.: Alvin makes an interesting point. Investors do need to be sure to have some liquid assets. Diversification is very important, and cash is a part of any smart investor’s portfolio. I do not agree, however, with frequenting pawn shops and cashing personal checks.
A.T.: What do you mean “frequenting pawn shops”? You got a problem with a man running a business where folks buy and sell? From the looks of your hips, you need to stop frequenting the buffet line, Lisa.
Blue Brick: Okay, panelists. Let’s stay focused here. What about bonds? They turned out to be a good investment in 2001.
L.W.: 2001 was a good year for bonds, but I don’t think their run will continue in 2002. At best, they’ll provide small returns. If you’re a conservative investor, I would suggest a small percentage of bonds for your portfolio.
C.A.: I agree with Lisa. If an investor is close to retirement, or in a position where they desire little risk, bonds are still a smart play.
A.T.: Only bonds I know about are bail bonds, and I got out of that business a few years ago. Too risky, man. What if the cat skips out? I say, bonds is a bad thing to be in.

Blue Brick: Interesting points, panelists. Let me ask each one of you to pick a sector or a stock that you would invest in for the long-term, and one that is a little more risky, but might provide tremendous growth this year.
C.A.: The key words in your question are “long-term”. Investors need to be careful not to invest with short-term goals in mind. The stock market is a tool to help the investor acquire wealth over a long period of time. With that in mind, I recommend investing in solid, established tech companies. Now, if an investor wants to be risky with some of their money, I recommend finding a pharmaceutical company with strong partnerships and some products in clinical trials that could be close to FDA approval.

L.W.: I think the best long-term sector is consumer goods. General Foods comes immediately to mind. If I were to take a risk, it would be in a high-tech stock, perhaps a telecommunications start-up company.
A.T.: The one thing folks always want to buy from me is guns. Doesn’t matter what is going on in the world, people want guns. And fourteen-carat chains. Man, they love them chains. So, I guess invest in guns and gold is my advice. The risky thing I see is guitars. Sometimes I get a guitar in, and two hours later some dude buys it up. Now, that’s sweet, quick money. But other times, the thing will sit on my shelf for months. Especially acoustic guitars, man. Nobody buys them suckers, but when they do, it’s nice because I don’t pay hardly nothing for them. So, guitars are definitely a high-risk venture.
The Blue Brick: Last question, panelists. Americans have more consumer debt than do any other country in the world. What is the best way for the average American to erase debt?
L.W.: The first thing a person should do is pay off their high-interest credit cards. Transferring a balance to a lower-interest card is a good way to start. Keep it for an emergency, like a car repair, but don’t buy anything unless you pay cash.
C.A.: Lisa is exactly correct. Paying off credit card debt is very important. Another way to increase your monthly income is to re-finance your home. If your mortgage rate is over 8 ½%, now is a good time to do so. Use the extra money to pay off your credit cards.
A.T.: I think folks need to consolidate and borrow from less traditional lenders, such as Trickles Cash Advance and Pawn. We will loan money against anything of value, will cash your check and not deposit it for two weeks. Two weeks, man! That gives you plenty of time to make a score and come up with the money to cover the check. Who else gonna do that for you? One of these investment fools? No way. As a matter of fact, if you mention that you heard about Trickles Cash Advance and Pawn in this article, I will guarantee that your loan will be approved and you will have cash money in your hand when you leave my establishment.
L.W.: That’s great, but what interest rate do you charge?
A.T.: I don’t think that’s really important, Lisa. Shouldn’t you be strapping on a feed bag right about now?
C.A.: And what happens if someone defaults on one of your loans, Mr. Trickle?
A.T.: Again, not important. But I do highly recommend that payments are made on time and in full, to ensure our client’s safety.
L.W.: What the hell does that mean?
A.T.: It means what it means, baby. Hey, ain’t we out of time?
The Blue Brick: Yes, unfortunately we are out of time. Quickly tell our readers how they can get in touch with you.
L.W.: Just visit NationalBank Investments on the web, or call your local branch office. My office is in downtown Boston.
C.A.: CityBank Investments can also be accessed via the Internet, or by calling a local office. My office is just outside of Bethesda.
A.T.: If you’re in Detroit, come by and see me at Trickles Cash Advance and Pawn. We’re on the corner of 25th and Scott, right next to the Wendy’s. If I’m not there, have Trey or Ju-Ju page me. I’d give out my pager digits, but there’s some folks that I don’t want to have that, if you know what I mean. But, Trey or Ju-Ju know how to reach me. And, if you mention that you heard about us from this article, I’ll personally give you ten percent off any gold chain purchase. No lie.
The Blue Brick: Thanks again to all of our panelists, and let’s all have a profitable 2002!